Solar activity summary (Last 24 hours)

6th January 2016

.24 hr Summary…
Solar activity was low. Region 2476 (S08W07, Cro/beta) continued its
gradual decay. Region 2477 (N12E15, Hsx/alpha) remained stable over the
past 24 hours. An impulsive C1 flare was observed from a region rotating
around the NE limb at 06/1137 UTC. A filament centered around the the SE
limb began erupting around 06/1100 UTC. No Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for
C-class flares over the next three days (06-08 Jan).

5th January 2016

.24 hr Summary…
Solar activity was very low. Region 2476 (S09E12, Dao/beta) was the most
complex spot group on the solar disk. The region underwent gradual
dissipation around the leader and trailer spots over the past 24 hours.
Region 2477 (N34E27, Hsx/alpha) was the only other spotted region. It
remained relatively inactive.

A disappearing solar filament (DSF) was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery
lifting off from the southeast quadrant at approximately 04/1230 UTC.
The material appeared to be reabsorbed and there is no anticipated
geoeffective component associated with this event. There were no
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in available
satellite imagery during the period.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares over the next three days (05-07 Jan).

3rd January 2016

.24 hr Summary…
Solar activity was very low and no solar flares were observed this
period. Region 2476 (S10E41, Cao/beta) exhibited minor growth
throughout the period while the remaining active regions were stable.

An eruptive prominence on the limb was observed near S38W90 in SDO/AIA
304 imagery between 03/0930-1030 UTC. The eruption propagated along the
filament channel from southeast to northwest and while relevant
coronagraph imagery was unavailable at the time of this writing, this
event is not expected to be Earth-directed.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares over the next three days (03-05 Jan).

11th November 2015

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2443 (N07, L=321), produced the
strongest flare of the period, a C3 flare at 10/1411 UTC,
as it rotated around the west limb. A new region of flux near the SE
limb produced a C2 flare at 10/1654 UTC. Region 2448 (N04W08), Cao/beta)
underwent some dissipation as it decreased in area and total spots.
Region 2449 (S12E10, Dso/beta) continued to undergo decay as it
decreased in penumbral area. All other regions were little changed and
stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed in
available SOHO/LASCO imagery during the period.

5th November 2015

Solar activity reached moderate (R1-Minor) levels during the period.
Region 2443 (N07W16, Fsc/beta) produced an M3/2b flare at 04/1352
UTC, along with associated Type II (est. shock speed 955 km/s) and Type
IV radio sweeps. This event also had an associated partial halo coronal
mass ejection (CME) that was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery
at 04/1436 UTC. Analysis of the WSA-Enlil model indicated there was an
Earth-directed component to this event that will likely reach Earth late
on day three (07 Nov). Expected impacts are described later in this
discussion. Region 2443 underwent magnetic simplification, losing its
delta configuration, as well as decreasing in areal coverage and number
of spots observed. However, it did remain the largest, most complex
region on the visible disk.

Region 2445 (N16W83, Dai/beta) produced an M2/1N at 04/1203 UTC. This
event had a Type II radio sweep associated with it, with estimate shock
speed of 518 km/s. The associated CME was analyzed and determined to be
off the Sun-Earth plane and should have no impacts at Earth. The region
underwent further decay as it made its way around the west limb, losing
its delta configuration within the trailer spot early in the period.

Region 2447 (N03E5,Hsx/alpha) exhibited decay with most of its spots,
decaying almost completely by the end of the period.

Region 2448 (N06E72, Dso/beta) rotated onto the NE limb. While its
trailer and leader spots were visible, they are still too close to the
limb to ascertain an accurate spot group classification.

12th March

Solar activity reached high levels during the period. At approximately
11/1622 UTC, Region 2297 (S16W00, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an
impulsive X2/2b flare with associated Type II (est. shock speed 1461
km/s) and Type IV radio emissions, as well as a 160 sfu Tenflare.
SDO/AIA imagery observed ejecta leaving the flare location in a mostly
easterly direction. This region also produced an M1/1n flare at 11/1851
UTC and an M3 flare at 12/0446 UTC. Numerous mid to upper-level C-class
flares were also observed from this region over the past 24 hours.

Region 2299 (S07E53, Bxo/beta) rotated onto the East limb and was
numbered during the period. This new region produced a C7 flare at
12/0218 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (est. shock speed
1903 km/s). No LASCO coronagraph imagery is available. However, based on
the location of the spot group, any associated coronal mass ejection
(CME) that may originate from this area will likely be too far East of
the Sun-Earth line. Region 2298 (S11W52, Cro/beta) continued to develop
slightly but remained quiescent.

Due to an extended outage of SOHO LASCO coronagraph imagery, accurate
analysis of any CMEs associated with the X2, M1, and M3 flares is
degraded, at best. However, the presence of the Type II radio sweep
combined with SDO/AIA 304 imagery indicated there was likely a CME
associated with the X2 flare with at least a portion of the plasma cloud
directed at Earth.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity likely for the next three days
(12-14 Mar). A slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flare activity
still exists as Region 2297 maintains its size and complex magnetic
structure. The forecast remains unchanged for the CMEs previously
mentioned in the prior discussion as it appears that a combined impact
of these transients may occur in the form of a glancing blow, mid to
late on day two (12 Mar).

A very rough estimate, based solely on the Type II estimated shock speed
and available SDO imagery, indicate the approximate arrival time of the
CME associated with the X2 flare at Earth is mid to late in the day on
13 March, prompting possible increases in solar wind velocities as the
transient passes Earth.

11th Feb

Solar activity was at very low levels. While Region 2282 (N11E38,
Eki/beta-gamma) continued to grow slightly in areal extent and length,
it only produced low-level optical activity. The other two regions on
the disk showed signs of decay and remained quiet.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for
isolated M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) for the next three days
(11-13 Feb).

20th January

Solar activity reached low levels with a few isolated C-class flares.
The largest was a C3/Sf at 19/2048 UTC from Region 2266 (S06W12,
Dao/beta). Slight decay was observed in the smaller intermediate spots
of Region 2266. The rest of the spotted regions were stable or in
decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during
the period.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a chance
for C-class flaring for the next three days (20-22 Jan).

17th January

Solar activity declined to very low levels with only B-class activity
observed. Region 2259 (S17W42, Dac/beta-gamma) remained the largest and
most complex region on the disk, but continued its slow decay during the
period. The remaining regions were stable. No obvious Earth-directed
CMEs were evident in limited SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast…
Isolated C-class events are likely, keeping activity at low levels
with a slight chance for an M-flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) for the next
three days (17-19 Jan) as the number of active regions on the visible
disk dwindles and Region 2259 decays.

15th January

Solar activity was moderate. Recently departed Region 2257 (N07, L=322)
produced an M2 (R1-Minor) flare at 14/1258 UTC. The region continued to
produce several C-class flares as it rotated off the west limb including
a C2 long duration event at 15/0334 UTC. Region 2259 (S15W20,
Esc/beta-delta) showed development in its trailer spots as well as
gaining a weak magnetic delta in the new spots. However, the region only
produced a lone C2 flare at 14/1826 UTC. All of the other regions on the
disk were either stable or in decay.

Other activity included a filament eruption observed at about 15/0338
UTC in the NE quadrant of the disk. The 6 degree long, east-west
oriented filament erupted along a channel centered near N16E15. SDO/AIA
304 imagery observed material movement across the disk in a NE
direction. Limited SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed a slow-moving CME
lifting off the NE limb, first visible at 15/0424 UTC. Further analysis
will be conducted as additional imagery becomes available.

.Forecast…
Solar activity is expected to remain low with a chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) for the next three days (15-17 Jan).