Using real-time solar wind data from Nasa’s ACE spacecraft, matched with data obtained from a network of magnetometers located worldwide, we are able to forecast, with reasonable accuracy, how the Northern Lights will behave up to one hour in advance. The image shows estimated aurora activity now.
Right now, the aurora is predicted to be: Kp 0.67
In 0 hour and 25 minutes, the aurora is predicted to be kp 0.67
In 0 hour and 39 minutes, the aurora is predicted to be kp 0.67
In 0 hour and 55 minutes, the aurora is predicted to be kp 1.00
System status: All Good.
While all the other forecasts are using satellite and scientific data. The Daily aurora forecast is predicted at 3pm Finnish time (1pm Universal Time) by a person. (The computer models and predictions are great, but using real life experience and pattern recognition is something they can’t do).
- 8 March
Tonight’s estimated aurora level:
Level 3 – Medium
Auroral activity should be at medium levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Mosjøen (Norway), Oulu (Finland), Luleå (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).
We are expecting a CH HSS any moment. Although not a particularly strong event (more so for Lapland/Iceland folks), they have been known to surprise us and I have personally witnessed a few kp5 shows from them. We usually get the most aurora activity out of them when they first arrive due to a snow plow effect building up the frontside edge, so keep your eye on the solar wind gauges below.
3 Day Forecast
Courtesy of NOAA.
- 7-9 March
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for day one (07 Mar). An increase in activity with a peak to active levels is forecast for day two (08 Mar) with the onset of an expected CH HSS. Unsettled conditions are forecast for day three (09 Mar) as CH effects persist through the period.
Predicted kp numbers for the next 3 days:
Time now in UTC (Universal Time) is: 03:40 09/03/14
Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11
00-03UT 4 3 3
03-06UT 3 2 2
06-09UT 2 2 2
09-12UT 2 2 2
12-15UT 2 2 2
15-18UT 2 2 2
18-21UT 2 2 2
21-00UT 3 3 2 ..
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. The onset of an expected CH HSS is expected to bring quiet to unsettled conditions for the next three days, with a chance for active levels on
Why do we use UTC?
UTC (Universal Time) is used in science, weather, aviation, military and many other fields. It eliminates confusion with multiple time zones and daylight saving. For more information on UTC click here
Solar Wind Gauges
These gauges are our own system, they are updated every 60 seconds directly from Nasa’s ACE spacecraft data. The data you see here is what the ACE spacecraft monitored only moments ago. These 3 components are the most important components of the solar wind (when it comes to Aurora Borealis). Note the Bz gauge works backwards. You can view all the components of the solar wind on our other solar wind tool here.
Gauges are updated every minute live (without the need for page refresh).
How to interpret the gauge activity
SWPC Solar Wind Dials
Real time solar wind tool (*NEW*)
click to launch
Aurora Ovation Oval
(short term prediction)
NOAA CME Prediction Forecast (*NEW*)
click to launch
NASA CME Prediction Forecast (*NEW*)
click to launch
ACE Real Time Solar Wind MAG & SWEPAM data
ACE Real Time Solar Wind EPAM (Low Energy Electrons & Protons) data
Magnetometer located in Dombås, Norway 62°N
What Kp strength do you need to view Northern Lights where you are?
The Northern Lights are most often seen in the Lapland regions of Finland, Sweden and Norway along with Iceland and Greenland. But during high activity, auroras are often visible from much lower latitudes, often including Scotland, Ireland, Denmark, Estonia and more. This table allows you to see what Kp level is typically required see aurora borealis where you are in the event of high geomagnetic activity.