Aurora Forecast

System status: All Good.

Daily Forecast

While all the other forecasts are using satellite and scientific data. The Daily aurora forecast is predicted at 5pm Finnish time (3pm Universal Time) by a person. (The computer models and predictions are great, but using real life experience and pattern recognition is something they can’t do).

• 31st January

  Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

  
  Level 2 – Low

  Forecast:
  Auroral activity should be at low levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Bodø (Norway), Sodankylä (Finland), Kiruna (Sweden) and Siglufjörður (Iceland).

  Comments:
  No significant geomagnetic activity expected. At the time of writing 1520 UTC / 1720 Finnish time, there is absolutely nothing to suggest there will be kp5 levels tonight. In fact it rather looks like a quiet night as it stands.

3 Day Forecast
Courtesy of NOAA.

• 30th Jan – 1 Feb

  Quiet to minor storm levels (NOAA Scale G1) are expected on days one and two (30-31 Jan) as the large extension off the southern crown polar coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position. By day three (01 Feb), mostly quiet to active conditions are expected.

Predicted kp numbers for the next 3 days:
Time now in UTC (Universal Time) is: 16:35 01/02/15

            Feb 01     Feb 02     Feb 03
 
00-03UT        4          4          4     
 
03-06UT        3          4          3     
 
06-09UT        3          3          2     
 
09-12UT        2          3          2     
 
12-15UT        2          2          2     
 
15-18UT        3          2          2     
 
18-21UT        5 (G1)     2          2     
 
21-00UT        4          2          3     
 

Why do we use UTC?
UTC (Universal Time) is used in science, weather, aviation, military and many other fields. It eliminates confusion with multiple time zones and daylight saving. For more information on UTC click here

Solar Wind Gauges

These gauges are our own system, they are updated every 60 seconds directly from Nasa’s ACE spacecraft data. The data you see here is what the ACE spacecraft monitored only moments ago. These 3 components are the most important components of the solar wind (when it comes to Aurora Borealis). Note the Bz gauge works backwards. You can view all the components of the solar wind on our other solar wind tool here.

Gauges are updated every minute live (without the need for page refresh).

How to interpret the gauge activity

SWPC Solar Wind Dials Dials are updated every 5 minutes with data averaged over last 15 minutes. More info.	Real time solar wind tool (*NEW*) click to launch

Aurora Ovation Oval (short term prediction)	Auroral Map (last recorded aurora strength)

NOAA CME Prediction Forecast (*NEW*) click to launch	NASA CME Prediction Forecast (*NEW*) click to launch

What Kp strength do you need to view Northern Lights where you are?

The Northern Lights are most often seen in the Lapland regions of Finland, Sweden and Norway along with Iceland and Greenland. But during high activity, auroras are often visible from much lower latitudes, often including Scotland, Ireland, Denmark, Estonia and more. This table allows you to see what Kp level is typically required see aurora borealis where you are in the event of high geomagnetic activity.

If you are having difficulty seeing northern lights from your location, you are always welcome to visit us and come out aurora chasing personally with us, in the most northern town in the EU! Visit tours.aurora-service.eu for more info.