Using real-time solar wind data from Nasa’s ACE spacecraft, matched with data obtained from a network of magnetometers located worldwide, we are able to forecast, with reasonable accuracy, how the Northern Lights will behave up to one hour in advance. The image shows estimated aurora activity now.
Right now, the aurora is predicted to be: Kp 2.00
In 0 hour and 15 minutes, the aurora is predicted to be kp 2.00
In 0 hour and 31 minutes, the aurora is predicted to be kp 2.00
In 0 hour and 46 minutes, the aurora is predicted to be kp 1.00
System status: All Good.
While all the other forecasts are using satellite and scientific data. The Daily aurora forecast is predicted at 5pm Finnish time (3pm Universal Time) by a person. (The computer models and predictions are great, but using real life experience and pattern recognition is something they can’t do).
- 11th November 2015
Tonight’s estimated aurora level:
Level 4 – High
Auroral activity should be at high levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Trondheim (Norway), Vaasa (Finland), Sundsvall (Sweden) and Faeroe Islands.
kp4 to kp5 conditions are expected tonight due to CH HSS effects. With the possible arrival of the 09 Nov CME anticipated, which will likely re-initiate G1(kp5) storm conditions.
3 Day Forecast
Courtesy of NOAA.
- 11th – 13th November 2015
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced, but likely to gradually decline on day one (11 Nov) as the CH HSS effects subside. Later on day one and into day two (12 Nov), the arrival of the 09 Nov CME is expected. Enhanced solar wind speeds and increased total magnetic field strength (Bt) are anticipated with the arrival and passage of the CME. Influences from the CME are expected to decline by early on day three (13 Nov), before another enhancement in total magnetic field strength (Bt) is expected ahead of another positive polarity CH HSS.
Predicted kp numbers for the next 3 days:
Time now in UTC (Universal Time) is: 09:58 27/11/15
Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov 29
00-03UT 1 3 2
03-06UT 2 2 1
06-09UT 2 2 1
09-12UT 2 2 1
12-15UT 2 2 1
15-18UT 2 2 1
18-21UT 2 2 2
21-00UT 3 2 2
Why do we use UTC?
UTC (Universal Time) is used in science, weather, aviation, military and many other fields. It eliminates confusion with multiple time zones and daylight saving. For more information on UTC click here
Solar Wind Gauges
These gauges are our own system, they are updated every 60 seconds directly from Nasa’s ACE spacecraft data. The data you see here is what the ACE spacecraft monitored only moments ago. These 3 components are the most important components of the solar wind (when it comes to Aurora Borealis). Note the Bz gauge works backwards. You can view all the components of the solar wind on our other solar wind tool here.
Gauges are updated every minute live (without the need for page refresh).
How to interpret the gauge activity
Aurora Ovation Oval
(short term prediction)
Real time solar wind tool
click to launch
NOAA CME Prediction Forecast
click to launch
NASA CME Prediction Forecast
click to launch
ACE Real Time Solar Wind MAG & SWEPAM data
ACE Real Time Solar Wind EPAM (Low Energy Electrons & Protons) data
Magnetometer located in Dombås, Norway 62°N
What Kp strength do you need to view Northern Lights where you are?
The Northern Lights are most often seen in the Lapland regions of Finland, Sweden and Norway along with Iceland and Greenland. But during high activity, auroras are often visible from much lower latitudes, often including Scotland, Ireland, Denmark, Estonia and more. This table allows you to see what Kp level is typically required see aurora borealis where you are in the event of high geomagnetic activity.
If you are having difficulty seeing northern lights from your location, you are always welcome to visit us and come out aurora chasing personally with us, in the most northern town in the EU! Visit tours.aurora-service.eu for more info.