Aurora Forecast

System status: All Good.

Daily Forecast

While all the other forecasts are using satellite and scientific data. The Daily aurora forecast is predicted at 3pm Finnish time (1pm Universal Time) by a person. (The computer models and predictions are great, but using real life experience and pattern recognition is something they can’t do).

• 8 March

  Tonight’s estimated aurora level:

  
  Level 3 – Medium

  Forecast:
  Auroral activity should be at medium levels. Weather permitting, aurora displays may be visible overhead or on the horizon in Mosjøen (Norway), Oulu (Finland), Luleå (Sweden) and Reykjavík (Iceland).

  Comments:
  We are expecting a CH HSS any moment. Although not a particularly strong event (more so for Lapland/Iceland folks), they have been known to surprise us and I have personally witnessed a few kp5 shows from them. We usually get the most aurora activity out of them when they first arrive due to a snow plow effect building up the frontside edge, so keep your eye on the solar wind gauges below.

3 Day Forecast
Courtesy of NOAA.

• 7-9 March

  The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for day one (07 Mar). An increase in activity with a peak to active levels is forecast for day two (08 Mar) with the onset of an expected CH HSS. Unsettled conditions are forecast for day three (09 Mar) as CH effects persist through the period.

Predicted kp numbers for the next 3 days:
Time now in UTC (Universal Time) is: 03:40 09/03/14

            Mar 09     Mar 10     Mar 11
 
00-03UT        4          3          3     
 
03-06UT        3          2          2     
 
06-09UT        2          2          2     
 
09-12UT        2          2          2     
 
12-15UT        2          2          2     
 
15-18UT        2          2          2     
 
18-21UT        2          2          2     
 
21-00UT        3          3          2     
.. 
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. The
onset of an expected CH HSS is expected to bring quiet to unsettled
conditions for the next three days, with a chance for active levels on

Why do we use UTC?
UTC (Universal Time) is used in science, weather, aviation, military and many other fields. It eliminates confusion with multiple time zones and daylight saving. For more information on UTC click here

Solar Wind Gauges

These gauges are our own system, they are updated every 60 seconds directly from Nasa’s ACE spacecraft data. The data you see here is what the ACE spacecraft monitored only moments ago. These 3 components are the most important components of the solar wind (when it comes to Aurora Borealis). Note the Bz gauge works backwards. You can view all the components of the solar wind on our other solar wind tool here.

Gauges are updated every minute live (without the need for page refresh).

How to interpret the gauge activity

SWPC Solar Wind Dials Dials are updated every 5 minutes with data averaged over last 15 minutes. More info.	Real time solar wind tool (*NEW*) click to launch

Aurora Ovation Oval (short term prediction)	Auroral Map (last recorded aurora strength)

NOAA CME Prediction Forecast (*NEW*) click to launch	NASA CME Prediction Forecast (*NEW*) click to launch

What Kp strength do you need to view Northern Lights where you are?

The Northern Lights are most often seen in the Lapland regions of Finland, Sweden and Norway along with Iceland and Greenland. But during high activity, auroras are often visible from much lower latitudes, often including Scotland, Ireland, Denmark, Estonia and more. This table allows you to see what Kp level is typically required see aurora borealis where you are in the event of high geomagnetic activity.